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FUD

Quantum computers will break all encryption by 2030

While quantum computing poses real threats to some cryptographic systems, claims of imminent total cryptographic collapse are overblown. Post-quantum cryptography standards are already being deployed.

#timeline #encryption #predictions
DJ

The Claim

“Quantum computers will break all encryption by 2030, making all digital communications insecure.”

The Verdict: FUD

This claim contains several misleading elements that exaggerate the threat while ignoring significant developments in cryptography.

What’s Wrong With This Claim

  1. Not “all encryption” - Symmetric encryption (like AES) is largely quantum-resistant. Grover’s algorithm only halves the effective key length.

  2. 2030 is unlikely - Most credible estimates place cryptographically-relevant quantum computers at 10-20+ years away.

  3. Post-quantum solutions exist - NIST has already standardized post-quantum algorithms (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA).

The Reality

Quantum computers do pose a genuine long-term threat to current public-key cryptography. However:

  • The timeline is highly uncertain
  • Migration to post-quantum cryptography is already underway
  • “Harvest now, decrypt later” is the more immediate concern

What You Should Do

  • Don’t panic
  • Do start planning your PQC migration
  • Prioritize systems with long-term confidentiality requirements

Verdict: FUD - The threat is real but the timeline and scope are exaggerated.